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Ukraine politics come full circle

(BBC) Reports from electoral officials in Ukraine suggest that pro-Russian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych will win the country's presidential election. Ninety-eight per cent of the votes are counted in the second round. If Yanukovych wins, this will represent a dramatic turnaround from the 2004 Orange Revolution, where election was found to be rigged in favour of Yanukovych, who was subsequently pushed to the side by protesters in favour of pro-West leader Viktor Yushenko. What is behind this dramatic shift in Ukrainian sentiment away from NATO and the West and toward their old Soviet leader, Russia?

1.

Ukraine wanders from Soviet path

Open Democracy
This website is published by Open Democracy Ltd., a UK registered company. It is a non-profit organization that publishes news analysis about globalization and world governance. This analytical article draws attention to how Ukraine deviated from the path of Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Written by Alexander Motyl, the article describes how Ukraine developed democratic opposition while radical change after 1991 in Russia weakened the state. It suggests that Ukraine is much stronger today because of this.

2.

Tug of war between East and West

Global Research
The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) runs the Global Research website. It is a non-profit organization based in Montreal featuring content by journalists, scholars, writers and activists. This article, written by Jose Miguel Alonso Trabanco, suggests that the 2004 Orange Revolution was supported by the West in a conscious effort to distance Russia from Europe. Russia, on the other hand wants to fold Ukraine into an economic partnership with other former Soviet states. If the present election indications are correct, this power struggle may be shifting in favour of the East.

3.

Ukrainians unhappy with status quo: survey

Pew Research Center
The Pew Research Center is an American "fact tank" that deals with issues that shape the U.S. and the world. It is involved in opinion polling, research, news reporting and analysis, forums and briefings. A survey conducted in September 2009 reveals that Ukrainians are unhappy with the current political and economic status of their country. More importantly, Ukrainians are more disappointed than any former USSR member country with the shift toward democracy and capitalism since 1991. Only 36 per cent of Ukrainians favour a change to Capitalism, compared with 52 per cent in 1991. This may begin to explain the dramatic turnaround in political opinion.

4.

EU struggling to integrate Ukraine

European Union
The European Commission's Delegation to Ukraine is responsible for guiding Ukraine's cooperation with the EU and it's eventual economic integration and political collaboration. The official website for the EU delegation outlines the framework it has built around bringing Ukraine into the EU fold. The EU-Ukraine Action Plan was developed in 2005 under pro-West President Viktor Yushenko. Will a new, pro-Russian president mean a setback for the delegation and Ukrainian pro-West advocates?

5.

Yanukovych declares victory

Jamestown Foundation blog
This blog for the Jamestown Foundation has a video of Yanukovych's recent victory speech. The blog discusses geopolitical developments in Eurasia. The foundation itself attempts to inform and education policy makers about societies in which the US has a strategic or political interest. It focuses mainly on terrorism concerns. The blog is valuable mostly for the video, produced by AFP, which presents a first-hand perspective with Yanukovych, in his own words, promising stability, economic growth and reforms.

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